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Latin America and the Caribbean
Latin Trade, July, 2004
Latin America and the Caribbean GDP % change on year ago LT Consensus Forecast * latest 2003 2004F 2005F Argentina 11.3 Q4 '03 8.3 6.8 3.3 Brazil -0.1 Q4 '03 -0.2 3.7 3.5 Chile 3.3 Q4 '03 3.3 4.9 4.9 Colombia 4.2 Q4 '03 3.5 3.8 3.5 Ecuador 4.0 Q4 '03 2.4 3.9 3.5 Mexico 3.7 Q1 '04 1.3 3.2 3.4 Peru 2.8 Q4 '03 4.0 3.8 3.0 Venezuela 9.0 Q4 '03 -9.2 8.2 3.6 Industrial production Unemployment% % change on year ago % rate latest latest Argentina 14.1 Feb '04 14.5 Q4 '03 Brazil 1.8 Feb '04 12.0 Feb '04+ Chile 8.0 Feb '04 8.1 Q1 '04 Colombia 6.1 Feb '04 15.4 Feb '04 Ecuador 7.9 Feb '04 10.3 Feb '04 Mexico 2.2 Feb '04 3.9 Feb '04+ Peru 4.1 Feb '04 10.6 Feb '04 Venezuela -- -- 14.1 Dec '03 Producer prices Consumer prices % change on year ago LT Consensus Forecast * latest 2003 2004F 2005F Argentina 2.2 Feb '04 3.7 7.2 8.0 Brazil 4.5 Feb '04 9.3 6.2 5.2 Chile -6.7 Feb '04 1.1 1.8 2.8 Colombia 5.0 Feb '04 6.5 5.8 5.4 Ecuador -2.5 Feb '04 6.1 5.2 3.5 Mexico 6.5 Feb '04 4.0 4.0 3.7 Peru 3.6 Feb '04 2.5 2.6 2.5 Venezuela 25.4 Feb '04 27.1 35.1 23.5 Exchange rates Current account end of period per US$ as % of GDP LT Consensus Forecast * LT Consensus Forecast * 2003 2004F 2005F 2003 2004F 2005F Argentina 2.91 2.89 3.02 6.7 4.9 2.9 Brazil 2.89 3.07 3.25 0.8 -0.4 -1.3 Chile 601 603 618 -0.7 0.6 -0.7 Colombia 2,779 2,888 3,079 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 Ecuador 1.00 1.00 1.00 -1.8 -0.1 -1.8 Mexico 11.22 11.33 11.74 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 Peru 3.46 3.52 3.58 -1.8 -1.5 -1.6 Venezuela 1,598 2,360 2,814 11.8 7.1 5.1 International reserves US$ billions LT Consensus Forecast * 2003 2004F 2005F Argentina 13.7 17.7 19.4 Brazil 49.3 51.8 51.9 Chile 15.9 16.4 16.7 Colombia 10.7 11.3 11.5 Ecuador 1.2 1.9 1.9 Mexico 56.5 59.2 60.2 Peru 10.1 10.6 10.8 Venezuela 21.0 21.0 20.4 * LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast includes Banamex, BBVA, Goldman Sachs, Merill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Santander Central Hispano Investment, UBS Warburg, LATIN TRADE + open unemployment (economically active, seeking work) Consumer prices Interest rates % change on year ago % per year year latest ago deposit lending Argentina 2.3 Feb '04 36.1 2.23 9.51 Feb '04 Bolivia 4.6 Feb '04 2.4 9.33 11.75 Feb '04 Brazil 6.7 Feb '04 15.8 14.42 56.10 Feb '04 Chile 0.0 Feb '04 3.8 1.69 5.03 Feb '04 Colombia 6.3 Feb '04 7.3 7.85 15.39 Feb '04 Costa Rica 11.5 Feb '04 9.6 9.50 23.25 Feb '04 Dominican Rep. 61.4 Feb '04 18.0 19.16 30.80 Feb '04 Ecuador 3.8 Feb '04 9.8 5.10 12.29 Feb '04 El Salvador 2.6 Feb '04 2.7 3.36 6.61 Feb '04 Guatemala 6.0 Feb '04 5.8 4.14 13.93 Feb '04 Honduras 6.7 Feb '04 8.9 11.24 20.24 Jan '04 Jamaica 16.7 Feb '04 5.7 8.43 19.17 Feb '04 Mexico 4.5 Feb '04 5.5 2.28 5.95 Feb '04 Panama 1.7 Dec '03 1.8 2.35 9.33 Jan '04 Paraguay 3.8 Feb '04 20.2 8.47 40.41 Feb '04 Peru 3.4 Feb '04 2.8 2.90 14.90 Jan '04 Trinidad & 3.0 Dec '03 1.3 2.59 9.50 Nov '03 Tobago Uruguay 9.1 Feb '04 28.0 -- -- -- Venezuela 21.9 Feb '04 39.7 11.96 20.07 Feb '04 Exchange rates April 26th, 2004 currency per US$ per euro Argentina Peso 2.83 3.35 Bolivia Boliviano 7.68 9.08 Brazil Real 2.91 3.44 Chile Peso 593.90 702.05 Colombia Peso 2,564 3,031 Costa Rica Colon 420.65 497.25 Dominican Rep. Peso 42.63 50.39 Ecuador Sucre 1.00 29,553 El Salvador Colon 8.75 10.35 Guatemala Quetzal 7.83 9.26 Honduras Lempira 17.52 20.72 Jamaica Dollar 55.00 65.02 Mexico Peso 11.33 13.39 Panama Balboa 1.00 1.18 Paraguay Guarani 5,595 6,613 Peru Sol 3.36 3.97 Trinidad & Dollar 6.15 7.27 Tobago Uruguay Peso 29.63 35.02 Venezuela Bolivar 1,918 2,267 Exports of goods US$ millions trailing latest 12 months Argentina 2,386 Feb '04 29,740 Bolivia 146 Feb '04 1,710 Brazil 5,722 Feb '04 74,800 Chile 2,172 Feb '04 21,816 Colombia 875 Feb '04 12,936 Costa Rica 517 Feb '04 6,116 Dominican Rep. 1,243 Q4 '03 5,439 Ecuador 449 Feb '04 6,009 El Salvador 125 Feb '04 3,004 Guatemala 369 Jan '04 4,464 Honduras 113 Jan '04 1,293 Jamaica 308 Q3 '03 1,088 Mexico 14,024 Feb '04 166,213 Panama 1,498 Q4 '03 5,051 Paraguay 360 Q3 '03 1,423 Peru 868 Feb '04 9,277 Trinidad & Tobago 974 Q2 '03 4,318 Uruguay 178 Feb '04 2,292 Venezuela 555 Jan '04 5,591 Imports of goods US$ millions trailing latest 12 months Argentina 1,349 Feb '04 15,186 Bolivia 139 Jan '04 1,629 Brazil 3,927 Feb '04 48,863 Chile 1,546 Feb '04 19,582 Colombia 1,091 Feb '04 13,949 Costa Rica 655 Feb '04 7,632 Dominican Rep. 1,879 Q4 '03 7,883 Ecuador 507 Feb '04 6,513 El Salvador 367 Feb '04 5,707 Guatemala 734 Jan '04 8,159 Honduras 281 Jan '04 3,274 Jamaica 869 Q3 '03 3,299 Mexico 14,076 Feb '04 172,294 Panama 1,608 Q4 '03 6,143 Paraguay 574 Q3 '03 2,048 Peru 657 Feb '04 8,262 Trinidad & Tobago 885 Q2 '03 3,661 Uruguay 216 Feb '04 2,291 Venezuela 989 Dec '03 8,337 International reserves ([dagger]) US$ millions latest year ago Argentina 14,671 Feb '04 10,293 Bolivia 623 Feb '04 450 Brazil 52,783 Feb '04 38,375 Chile 16,059 Feb '04 16,439 Colombia 11,163 Feb '04 10,881 Costa Rica 1,741 Feb '04 1,750 Dominican Rep. 342 Feb '04 598 Ecuador 872 Feb '04 619 El Salvador 1,906 Feb '04 1,700 Guatemala 2,802 Feb '04 2,362 Honduras 1,429 Feb '04 1,451 Jamaica 1,506 Feb '04 1,302 Mexico 63,063 Feb '04 51,954 Panama 1,069 Feb '04 1,511 Paraguay 934 Feb '04 637 Peru 10,088 Feb '04 9,991 Trinidad & Tobago 2,451 Dec '03 2,028 Uruguay 2,230 Feb '04 535 Venezuela 17,184 Feb '04 8,423 ([dagger]) Excluding gold, IMF definition SOURCE: IMF, individual countries, Oanda, LATIN TRADE
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