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Passing California's Proposition 5 - Indian Gaming Initiative

Campaigns & Elections, Feb, 1999 by Richard Maullin

The inside story of how the Indian Gaming Initiative won despite big-time opposition

Opposition to the Indian Gaming Initiative ultimately included a broad range of unusual allies - GOP Gov. Pete Wilson, labor unions, business groups, California's horse racing industry and card clubs, Nevada gaming interests, the religious right and anti-gambling groups.

According to the early handicapping of California's ballot propositions, Prop 5, the Indian Gaming Initiative, was supposed to lose. The story of how this would-be loser was turned into 1998's most significant ballot winner is an intriguing case study of political strategy and campaign management.

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From the start, the "Yes on 5" campaign team knew an initiative to protect Indian gaming would face highly motivated, well-funded opposition. That opposition ultimately included a broad range of unusual allies - the administration of GOP Gov. Pete Wilson, labor unions, business groups, California's horse racing industry and card clubs, Nevada gaming interests, the religious right and anti-gambling groups.

Furthermore, Proposition 5 called for a "Yes" vote on a controversial issue - an outcome that has proven historically difficult to achieve. Conventional wisdom is that a "Yes" vote requires initial public support of between 60 percent and 70 percent if a measure is to pass against a well-organized opposition campaign. Early opinion research placed the percentage of support for the measure in the low 50s.

In fact, so serious and numerous were the hurdles facing Proposition 5 that in July 1998, Harry Curtis, a senior equity analyst for the BancAmerica Robertson Stephens Gaming Industry Report, said, "In our opinion, there is a one-in-eight chance it will pass."

But by the time Prop 5 was approved by voters on November 3, its place in history was guaranteed. Combined, proponents and opponents of the measure spent the greatest amount of money in national ballot initiative history - an unprecedented $100 million. And in spite of all predictions to the contrary, it won - and won by a substantial 63 percent to 37 percent margin.

Gaming on California Indian reservations was first regulated after Congress passed the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act in 1988. This legislation requires gaming tribes to have treaties (called compacts) with their respective state governments specifying the types of gaming permitted on reservation lands. In California, negotiation of these compacts had dragged on for several years, even as certain Indian casinos began operating with various card games, bingo and video gaming devices.

By mid-1997, the gaming tribes and Wilson were at an impasse, particularly over the tribes' desire to keep video gaming machines. The continuing impasse raised the specter that without a compact for each gaming tribe, the federal government - at the state's behest - might shut down the machines that were providing tribes with about 80 percent of their gaming revenues. Further complicating the picture were a few tribes, as yet to have gaming, who were amenable to the "Pala" compact proposed by Wilson which restricted the number and type of gaming machines.

The Go Decision

With their sovereign rights and livelihood under attack, several gaming tribes began exploring the possibility of a '98 ballot initiative to resolve the stalemate with the governor. In December of '97, gaming tribes led by the Morongo Band of Mission Indians and the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians commissioned Winner/Wagner & Mandabach Campaigns to study the issue and advise them on the feasibility of a campaign.

As part of this feasibility study, our firm, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates, conducted detailed studies of voter opinion. They revealed that while there was just marginal public support for an initiative to protect existing types of gaming on California's tribal lands, a significant majority of voters were not opposed to gambling per se, and supported Indian tribes having casinos on their own land. Winner/Wagner & Mandabach consulted with us regarding the research results and their implications. Then, they advised the tribes that there was a reasonable chance of success - if they could commit to putting on an intensive, highly focused campaign.

And commit they did. Thirty gaming and non-gaming tribes (a number which eventually grew to 88) joined the Prop 5 coalition, in what for many of them had literally become a battle for survival. Mary Ann Martin Andreas, chairwoman of the Morongo Band of Mission Indians, described the decision to proceed this way: "We felt we were running out of options and our backs were really against a wall. We had to go forward if we were going to secure our future."

With slightly less than a month until the petition-filing deadline, the campaign launched an all-out signature drive. Using a unique combination of direct mail, standard signature gathering activities and supportive television advertising, the effort garnered more than a million signatures in 28 days, qualifying the measure in record time.

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Passing California's Proposition 5 - Indian Gaming Initiative

Campaigns & Elections, Feb, 1999 by Richard Maullin

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