There are new iPhones once more — but I’m skipping this round. After five years with the same device, I’d planned to do so on cue. But the argument for waiting has never been more compelling, and I’m far from alone. Consumers are extending the iPhone upgrade cycle because the devices are lasting longer, software support is more expansive and the economics of replacing hardware every year, or even every other year, hardly make sense.
The iPhone upgrad cycle has changed
In developed markets, replacement cycles have crossed well beyond the three-year threshold, several industry analyst firms following smartphone sell-through have recorded. Statista anticipates that global replacement cycles will be around the three-year mark by mid-decade. This is a repeating theme, because average users aren’t being impressed the way they used to be with minor increases.
I would have the fear of missing out with every launch. Now, cameras or displays would need to make a meaningful leap and look like a true reinvention, not a refresh. For the vast majority of people, though, that’s not enough to justify going four digits deep on a purchase and into a fresh 36-month carrier commitment.
Duration of the software bridges the gap
Modern iPhones have long-tail software lives. The newest release of iOS continues to support many models that date to 2018, and Apple has a history of pushing security updates for even longer. Apple has laid out at least five years of support for current lines in the UK under the Product Security and Telecommunications Infrastructure categories; in practice, many models receive six to seven years of useful coverage.
That extended runway matters. And with your phone picking up those latest privacy controls, Messages upgrades, wallet features and accessibility enhancements, the day-to-day mix doesn’t get old. Yes, some leading-edge AI capabilities or camera features still trickle whenever, but the core platform parity is now high enough that optimization for the newer chips is rarely punitive enough to make skipping a generation, or even two, feel like a fireable offense.
Advances in hardware are real — but less important
There is no denying that the newest iPhones are faster, cooler to look at and capable of taking better low-light photos. Screens are brighter and slicker; modems are more efficient; thermal management is better. But be honest about how often your phone really exacerbates your life. For most email, banking, maps, video calls and casual photography, a machine from four or five years ago is still more than adequate.
I can still extract crispy frames from an earlier dual‑camera setup and use a lightweight mirrorless camera when image quality is crucial. The jump from “great” to “slightly better” is simply not enough of an upgrade trigger that it once was — particularly when computational photography is capable of bringing so much newness to older hardware via software.
The economics favor waiting
Carriers in the US and other countries are increasingly attaching incentives to long financing terms. Trading in a functioning iPhone could score a nice headline number but it will likely not only lock you in to 24–36 months of payments and plan requirements. By contrast, Apple’s official battery service is $79 for most recent models, and third‑party service like authorized repair can be even more affordable.
Do the math: a battery and a new case can buy another 18 to 24 months of snappiness for a fraction of what a new handset costs. And the used market is strong — keeping an extra year can (at times) help close the depreciation gap, related to how when you time resale just before a major refresh.
Repairability and sustainability matter
Keeping a phone an extra year isn’t just thrift, it’s climate math. The European Environmental Bureau has calculated that extending the life of smartphones throughout the EU by one year would reduce millions of tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions annually, mostly by skipping the energy and materials used in new production.
Manufacturers are inching in the right direction. Apple’s Self Service Repair program and its decision to begin offering used genuine parts for repairs have made it easier and cheaper to repair devices. Factor in tougher right‑to‑repair laws on the horizon in both the US and Europe, and the path of least resistance increasingly leads through ownership costs — not upgrades.
What ultimately gave me pause
My five-year-old iPhone still runs the latest iOS like butter, my most-used apps fire up nearly instantly, and things like navigation or mobile payments never hiccup. The battery is not new, but it should be fine — and it would be an inexpensive form of insurance to replace it. The only “must-have” features I’m missing out on are so niche for my workflow that they’re not transformative to my day-to-day.
I also don’t want to get stuck to a long carrier contract. Sitting out that cycle gives me bargaining power: I can now hold out for an actual compelling feature set, purchase unlocked, and be in a position to negotiate instead of to be holding the losing hand.
When it’s still worth upgrading
There are clear exceptions. If your battery has bloated, cameras are failing, storage is constantly maxed out, you depend on pro‑grade video, on‑device AI abilities or satellite features, new hardware can unlock real value. And for some users, access improvements associated with newer processors can even be life‑changing.
But the smartest thing for the average iPhone owner, as much as it is for Apple, may be the least glamorous: If it ain’t broke, don’t change it, at least not right away. Stick with what you have, replace consumables, and allow a technology stack to mature. As replacement cycles extend, and support for older gear remains healthy, “break the upgrade every five years” is not stubbornness — instead, it may be strategic. And from the numbers, it’s a strategy many have adopted.