Nintendo Directs are designed to thrill and frustrate in equal parts. For every crowd-pleaser, there’s a high-profile no show — and as development timelines continue to blow out across the industry, some of those A-listers just aren’t ready for the stage yet.
Here are three games fans are giddy about but that in light of past practice, staffing realities and recent industry reporting are long shots to make it this time.
Next Legend of Zelda is probably not ready
After the one-two punch of Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom, Zelda is in rarified air—and that very success makes a fast successor less likely.
Per Nintendo’s financial reporting, Tears of the Kingdom shifted over 20 million units in its first year and as that level of production, tech and QA tends to necessitate a hefty runway between mainline entries.
Consider the cadence: Breath of the Wild was teased years in advance of release, and its sequel was announced relatively early but still will be another long stretch before it ships. Nintendo’s EPD (Entertainment Planning & Development) groups are notorious for their tireless iteration; they’re not companies to rush the physics-driven sandbox design that has come to define modern Zelda. Even if work started on the next project not long after Tears shipped, it’s still a slim chance we’re at teaser with nothing to show but a creative hook.
And can we get Nintendo to pull a logo as a “one more thing”? Never impossible. But history would indicate that the company will hold out on early looks unless a thematic direction and mechanics can be communicated in more than mere name. The odds are better for smaller updates—soundtrack releases, artbooks, or developer retrospectives—than any kind of true next-era reveal.
A 3D Mario showcase is unlikely
Fans are understandably eager for the next console-level 3D Mario. Super Mario Odyssey sold more than 26 million copies by Nintendo’s latest tallies, and the brand’s gravitational pull is second to none. But the contemporary 3D Mario rhythm has stretched: Galaxy (2007), Galaxy 2 (2010), 3D World (2013), Odyssey (2017) and Bowser’s Fury (2021) as a condensed experiment rather than full-fat sequel.
The EPD Tokyo family that drives 3D Mario tends to prototype for years at times, particularly when hardware transitions are in play. New systems bring new controller layouts, new performance profiles, and new opportunities to reconsider traversal. There could be internal showcases going on, but Nintendo typically only shows Mario when they have a slam-dunk demo that sells the premise in seconds – consider Odyssey’s cityscape and cap mechanics. If that vertical slice isn’t ready to withstand bullets yet, the debut will be delayed.
And then there/I move on to…that issue aside, another complicating factor is that core teams often are supporting other projects and platform features during a hardware transition, something that has been mentioned in previous developer interviews compiled by publications like Famitsu and public business Q&As for Nintendo investors. The next big plumber adventure after that is probably still further away, or some of the bandwidth split to enable a greater level of broader platform polish wouldn’t have been used.
As for the Final Fantasy IX remake, it’s still a big question mark
The supposed Final Fantasy IX remake has been floating out there in the ether ever since that GeForce Now database leak gave us all a heads up on unannounced projects, many of which turned out to be accurate for uncovered titles.
Industry chatter from reliable reporters have kept the embers warm, but no official reveal has landed yet and recent corporate maneuvering at Square Enix makes an imminent splash less of a sure thing.
Square Enix had spent the past couple of years overhauling its pipeline, pivoting toward more lower-risk, higher reward bets and releasing games across multiple platforms, as it laid out in company briefings and was widely reported by various business outlets. The publisher is also heavily committed to post-launch support of both blockbuster releases and regular PC conversions. What’s more, a ground-up remake of IX — with new art, battle systems and narrative presentation — would likely cost several shekels to make happen and if real would probably be a thing that gets revealed during an event tied to the publisher’s larger marketing plan (as opposed to tucked in between bits as part of a general Direct).
There is also a practical issue as to who and what they are targeting — the scope. This would be a good time for the project to show itself off with modern visual standards so timing or associating reveal with clear platform messaging was important. And in the absence of an actual trademark, developer credit, or teaser lit by Square Enix itself, consider this one a long-gestating “maybe” rather than a Direct lock.
Manage expectations, embrace the curveballs
Nintendo does that zig where fans are expecting a zag. The safest bets for a presentation like this are updates on previously announced games, expansions to existing titles that get their moment in the sun with some clever new offerings, and mid-size projects that help fill out a release calendar. Analysts who study platform life cycles, like Ampere Analysis, observe that a steady output at all sizes — not only tentpoles — holds high engagement.
If Zelda, 3D Mario, or a rumoured FFIX remake are no-shows at the festivities then it isn’t an indication of trouble—just that the best games are made with some patience. Give yourself some wiggle room, but set expectations where the reality is in the industry”s timelines right now.