Windows 10 End-of-Support Will Not Boost US PC Sales

The predictable end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 isn’t spurring U.S. consumers to immediately put new PCs into their shopping carts.

PC shipments were soft despite increasing awareness, and the typical pre-deadline upgrade rush simply hasn’t materialized.

US PC Shipments Flat as Windows 10 Support Nears

U.S. PC shipments fell 1.4% year over year to 18.6 million units in the latest quarter, according to market tracker Canalys, which described demand as “stagnant.” The company says that most consumers are opting to wait until systems bog down or fail altogether rather than taking their computers out of commission based on a milestone in an operating system.

And a lot of that is price sensitivity. Canalys analysts cite lingering inflation and a weaker household mood; premium electronics products are taking a back seat to ordinary necessities. It’s a tough backdrop for an upgrade cycle that, on paper, should be one of the biggest in years.

Commercial PC Purchases Help Offset Weak Retail Demand

There is one silver lining: business purchases. Canalys estimates demand for commercial PCs in the United States grew by about 4 percent from a year ago during the quarter, helping to offset softer consumer sales. Fleet refreshes are happening, but even here spending is somewhat measured, not rambunctious.

Other trackers have picked up the uneven portrait. IDC points to a deceleration in U.S. demand following tariff uncertainty that led some vendors to “front-load” shipments earlier, contributing to run-rate noise.

Windows 11 is “better than the data indicates” — but it’s still abysmal.

Gartner adds that, while Windows 11 is driving desktop replacement activity, many firms are upgrading in place — reimaging and thus extending the useful life of existing PCs — rather than ordering new hardware at scale.

Hardware Hurdles and Consumer Workarounds Slow Upgrades

Some of the hesitation among consumers is practical. Thanks to Windows 11’s tougher hardware requirements, including modern CPUs and TPM support, older PCs aren’t officially eligible. But that doesn’t open wallets automatically. Microsoft has offered zero-cost shortcuts to one year’s extra security support for some Windows 10 customers, silencing scuttlebutt about the impact of a longer service plan.

At the same time, cheap fixes — slapping in an SSD, adding memory, or doing a clean install — can make a five- or six-year-old PC feel lively enough for web browsing, office tasks, and streaming. For a lot of buyers, that’s “good enough,” particularly when midrange laptops and desktops haven’t exhibited much in the way of price drops outside of seasonal sales.

Tariffs, Inventory Strategies and the PC Pricing Equation

Supply chain tactics are also having an impact on the data. Vendors rushed to get ahead of threatened new tariffs, prematurely pulling forward imports to stockpile. With PCs somewhat decontented and inventory high, manufacturers are now unloading channel stock rather than accelerating new orders. That can be a drag on shipment numbers… even if sell-through is holding the line, and it tends to encourage targeted discounts rather than broad price resets.

Canalys still anticipates low single-digit growth over the next year, but that outlook is resting on commercial refreshes and a longer Windows 11 transition as opposed to a sudden consumer wave. Manufacturers will likely push value configurations and aggressive trade-in deals, keeping an eye on price points that penetrate household caution.

Why the Windows 11 Sales Pitch Is Falling Flat for Now

The features that matter to an IT department in Windows 11 are largely centered around security hardening, the modern way to manage a fleet of systems, and some AI-tinted stuff that only looks intelligent when you add more technical categories or adopt Blue Screen bingo for company game night. The hype machine known as “AI PC” remains in its early stages and, without a killer must-have experience to move the needle, buyers don’t see the reason to retire a working Windows 10 computer.

Another bummer: a large installed base still hangs at Windows 10 — industry trackers peg it at about 45% of the Windows desktops. That mass won’t flip overnight. And due to the extended security options and some workarounds, that transformation is likely to be a wave rather than a crest in one season.

Outlook: A Longer, Flatter PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead

Every indication is that this will be a slow-burn migration. Policy-driven deployments will carry on for businesses to maintain stability. For the most part, consumers will wait for things to break, prices to plummet, or features that lead obviously to an immediate improvement in their daily digital lives. The Windows 10 sunset may eventually influence sales, but in the U.S. it hasn’t altered the calculus yet — and at this point, the market seems inclined to take the scenic route through Windows 11.