Amazon’s high-profile documentary Melania tumbled 67% in its sophomore frame, sliding to an estimated $2.37 million and dropping from third to ninth place at the domestic box office. The sharp decline follows a better-than-expected debut and underscores how quickly theatrical momentum faded for the film centered on former First Lady Melania Trump.
Box Office Slide Outpaces Comparable Releases
Super Bowl weekend typically softens moviegoing, a pattern long noted by Comscore and exhibitors, but Melania’s fall significantly outpaced the marketplace. The weekend’s top film, Send Help, eased 47%, illustrating that competition and seasonal distractions alone don’t explain the drop.
Through two weekends, Melania has grossed an estimated $13.5 million, with the vast majority from the United States. That puts the film on a trajectory where its domestic run is unlikely to compensate for its hefty upfront costs, even with potential stabilization in later weeks.
Pricey Bet Faces Steep Theatrical Break-Even Math
Amazon acquired the documentary for roughly $40 million and reportedly spent another $35 million on marketing. With a current gross of $13.5 million, standard domestic revenue splits suggest Amazon’s theatrical rentals to date would be well under $10 million—far short of the combined outlay. While exact terms vary, industry norms imply a challenging path to theatrical breakeven.
That calculus is why Amazon emphasizes a broader release lifecycle. Beyond box office, the studio looks to downstream value from streaming on Prime Video, transactional sales, international licensing, and long-tail engagement. Documentaries often travel better at home than in theaters, a trend highlighted in Nielsen’s streaming reports, which regularly show non-fiction titles punching above their theatrical weight once they hit living rooms.
Amazon Defends Its Theatrical-Streaming Hybrid Strategy
Anticipating scrutiny over the second-week decline, Amazon’s head of domestic theatrical distribution Kevin Wilson framed the release as a two-stage plan, saying theater and streaming “represent two distinct value creating moments that amplify the film’s overall impact.” It’s consistent with the company’s playbook on recent titles that used a theatrical window to spark conversation before transitioning to Prime Video, where the service measures success in both viewership and subscriber engagement.
That strategy has precedent. Theatrical-first campaigns can boost awareness and perceived prestige, which in turn can lift streaming starts and completion rates. Even when box office underdelivers, the halo effect on a platform with massive reach can offset weak ticket sales.
Critical Drubbing Versus Audience Raves
Melania has been panned by critics, but it sparked a strikingly different reaction from audiences. The film logged a 99% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, so unusual given the critical consensus that the site issued a statement affirming the authenticity of the rating. That split may reflect the documentary’s polarizing subject, as well as the power of mobilized fan bases in early audience polling.
Whether that enthusiasm translates into sustained sales is another matter. In-theater conversions depend on more than sentiment; weekday holds, regional turnout, and expansion screens often tell the tale in week three and beyond. So far, the numbers suggest intense interest among a narrow group rather than broad, durable demand.
Deal Optics Add Heat to the Ongoing Discourse
Even before release, the acquisition drew unusual attention. A former Amazon film executive publicly questioned why the price was so high, characterizing it as potentially aimed at currying favor with the Trump orbit. Amazon has positioned the film as part of a robust non-fiction slate and has not indicated any motive beyond commercial and strategic value.
The debate underscores how political subject matter can complicate risk-reward math. Controversy can drive awareness, but it also tends to front-load turnout, producing elevated openings followed by sharp declines—precisely the pattern now visible in the second weekend data.
What to Watch Next for Melania’s Box Office Arc
Exhibitors will trim underperforming shows as new releases arrive, likely compressing Melania’s footprint. The more consequential phase will be its streaming bow, where Amazon can leverage homepage placement, segmented marketing, and contextual recommendations to find a larger audience than theaters could deliver.
For now, the takeaway is straightforward: a steep 67% fall, a ninth-place finish, and a domestic total of $13.5 million that won’t cover a reported $75 million spend. The real test of Amazon’s thesis—that a theatrical pulse meaningfully lifts a film’s lifetime value—will come when Melania shifts from the box office to the Prime Video home screen.
