U.S. employers added a preliminary 29,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation report. The modest payroll increase was accompanied by downward revisions totaling 60,000 jobs for July and August, leaving the recent employment record softer than previously reported.
The result was consistent with slower hiring, though one month of labor data can be volatile. BLS said payroll employment and the unemployment rate changed little in September, reflecting the statistical uncertainty around monthly estimates. The 29,000 gain was below the 90,000-job increase economists had expected, according to Associated Press reporting published by The Independent, and it came four weeks before the November 3 midterm elections.
Revisions reshape the recent payroll record
August payroll growth was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000. July was recast from a 21,000 gain to a loss of 10,000. Together, those revisions subtracted 60,000 jobs from the two-month total before September’s estimate was added.
That leaves a three-month sequence of a 10,000-job loss in July, a 133,000 gain in August and a 29,000 gain in September. September’s increase was 16,000 below the 45,000 average monthly payroll gain over the preceding 12 months reported by BLS, or roughly 36% lower. The comparison is useful context, but it is not proof of a sustained new trend: September remains preliminary and the earlier figures can be revised again.
The official report puts the number of unemployed people at 7.1 million in September. The unemployment rate has ranged between 4.1% and 4.3% since March. Labor-force participation held at 61.8%, while the employment-population ratio remained 59.2%; BLS said both measures have shown little net change since January.
Why the headline moves carry statistical limits
The payroll count and unemployment rate do not come from the same survey. The payroll figure is drawn from the establishment survey of employers, while the unemployment rate is calculated from the household survey. They measure related parts of the labor market but have different samples, coverage and sampling error.
BLS’s methodological guidance says an over-the-month establishment-survey change of about 122,000 jobs is needed to be statistically significant. The agency uses a separate household-survey benchmark of about 650,000 for monthly changes in employment. The 29,000 payroll estimate is well below the establishment-survey threshold, which helps explain why BLS characterized the monthly movement as little changed even as the headline gain was far smaller than August’s revised increase.
This does not make the revisions immaterial. Revisions alter the level from which businesses, policymakers and investors assess hiring. But the data do not establish from a single release that employment conditions have materially deteriorated. The unemployment rate’s increase to 4.2% and the payroll slowdown are numerical facts; the broader interpretation requires more than one monthly reading.
Health care, construction and manufacturing led limited gains
September’s net increase masked differing industry results. Health care added 17,000 jobs, construction added 11,000 and manufacturing added 9,000, according to BLS’s detailed industry payroll table. Those three gains totaled 37,000 jobs, exceeding the overall 29,000 increase and indicating that declines elsewhere offset part of their expansion. Financial activities lost 7,000 jobs, while BLS said employment across the major industries changed little overall.
Pay measures were also restrained. Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm employees rose by 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81. Earnings were 3.0% higher than a year earlier. The average private-sector workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours, another indication that employers did not broadly alter scheduled hours during the month.
Job openings point to a low-turnover market
A separate BLS release offers a broader, though lagged, view of labor-market flows. In August, there were 7.1 million job openings, 5.2 million hires and 5.1 million total separations, according to the agency’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Quits stood at 3.1 million, while layoffs and discharges were 1.6 million.
JOLTS measures openings and worker movements during August, not September payrolls, so it should not be treated as a confirmation of the latest monthly employment estimate. It does show that hiring and layoffs were broadly little changed heading into the September survey period. That mix is consistent with a labor market in which employers are neither expanding payrolls rapidly nor conducting broad layoffs.
The next Employment Situation report, covering October, is scheduled for November 6, after the midterm vote. It will provide a second reading on whether September’s low payroll estimate was a temporary fluctuation or part of a more persistent slowdown in hiring.
