Truth Social plans to enter the crypto-fueled prediction market segment with a new product, Truth Predict, positioning itself as a direct competitor to Polymarket and a risk to Kalshi’s regulated model. The firm claims it has reached an exclusive collaboration with Crypto.com to manage the product’s wallet and settlement systems. Truth Predict is described as the first product of its type provided by a publicly traded social media company. The company will blend social conversation with real-money prediction.
Executed, this will fundamentally alter the network from a conversation forum to a spot where users can invest in results associated with politics, sports, culture, and finance—and comment on these wagers all in one place. Trump Media and Technology Group says users will buy and sell contracts associated with real-world occurrences, a system familiar to prediction markets. Instead of betting against the house, users are matched against each other on virtually all platforms, and the house levies a commission depending on volume.
Offering a marketplace directly through a social network will eliminate friction by generating increased liquidity: a discussion thread might immediately lead to a trading ticket, which may concentrate attention and order flow in one location. The partnership with Crypto.com suggests crypto-native infrastructure for settlement and custody, one which has aided Polymarket grow rapidly with stablecoins. Whether Truth Predict enables stablecoin settlement, fiat on-ramps, or both will decide how quickly mainstream consumers can access it. All of the best markets reduce onboarding fear while enforcing a firm regime.
A direct challenge to Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket has become the crypto prediction market of record, with visible public order books and markets spanning election outcomes to entertainment. Kalshi operates on a derivatives exchange license, listing specific event contracts through a CFTC-regulated framework. Both have attracted retail traders and data-hungry observers who look to market prices as real-time crowd forecasts. Academic work, including research citing several current forecasting scholars associated with Good Judgment, finds that well-constructed markets can be well calibrated when liquidity is deep and resolutions unambiguous. That is the bar for Truth Predict. Liquidity begets accuracy; muddled question design and thin order books breed noise.
Regulatory and compliance questions for prediction markets
Prediction markets walk a narrow line between innovative finance and regulated derivatives. The CFTC has closely inspected certain event contracts, and high-profile crypto prediction venues have blocked U.S. use after resolution with regulators. News analysis also uncovered federal law enforcement interest in certain operators, followed by announcements that access was restored once probes were complete.
Product design is crucial in this environment; geofencing, know-your-customer checks, stablecoin recognition, and resolution protocols will all be required. Kalshi’s strategy as a regulated exchange that lists specific event contracts, and Polymarket’s crypto-first approach with stablecoin recognition and conspicuous markets are two examples of market behavior. Truth Predict must determine its position on the spectrum and clarify how Crypto.com’s compliance stack will be enforced, including user verification, jurisdictional gating, and market qualification.
Business model, potential conflicts, and engagement risks
Event markets commonly monetize through trading fees and often market creation fees. The benefit of putting markets in a social app is engagement; posts, polls, and streams can drive herding order flow. Two dangers are platform-driven herding, where influencer stories dominate evaluation, and markets that appear free but pay to collect user data. Essential precautions include simple sponsored markets, anti-manipulation rules, and independent resolution oracles.
There are also the optics. Wired and others reported that members of the Trump family have advisory or investment ties to present prediction market players. Even without breaking rules, a platform hosting markets on political or business results involving its owners gets attention. Strong conflict-of-interest policies, posted audit logs, and public checks could reduce such wariness.
Key product questions to watch for adoption and trust
Many specifics will decide whether Truth Predict can achieve adoption.
- How simple is the UX: can a new user register an account, fund one, and place a trade within minutes, with safe disclosure and trading restrictions for novice traders?
- How well is the market designed: who is in charge of asking questions, providing initial liquidity, and resolving questions to avoid confusion?
- How effective are the guardrails: can the platform stop dishonesty or coordinated efforts aimed at price acceleration, especially when the conversation and live price layers merge?
Metrics to watch and the bottom line for Truth Predict
Investors and analysts must monitor metrics such as open interest, unique active traders, average spreads, and revenue per market. If Truth Social can convert conversation into informed risk-taking without sacrificing integrity, then it can become prominent. If it cannot, it will end up as a noisy feed with little liquidity, which is the exact situation prediction markets penalize with poor signals and terrible experiences.
The bottom line is that the bold gamble is bringing a crypto prediction market into a politically charged social network. With robust compliance and market style, as well as actual community knowledge, it can succeed. The outcome will be decided long before the crowd has a say by the boldness of belief, regulation, and market microstructure.
