Kalshi Valuation at $11 Bn Post $1B Funding

Kalshi, the event-driven trading platform that’s built around turning real-world outcomes into tradable contracts, has raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation from undisclosed investors, according to a person familiar with the deal. The new money underscores increasing investor confidence that prediction markets are shifting from a niche curiosity to mainstream financial infrastructure.

A New Yardstick for Prediction Markets’ Maturity and Scale

The raise comes a few weeks after Kalshi, which is valued at around $5 billion and raised about $300 million in its previous round, became one of the latest fintech unicorns in an especially frothy cycle. It’s a reflection not only of a flood of user activity, but also of the belief that event markets can be a timely sentiment barometer across politics, entertainment and macroeconomics.

There is some momentum in the trading tape. Most importantly, Wahed’s Kalshi seems to have unlocked a product relay that is all set to redefine the contours of fintech models, for, paradoxically, when The New York Times got smitten by Kalshi in their leveraged spread only earlier this month, it quoted figures that showcased annualized trading volume at approximately $50 billion compared to around $300 million from about a year ago — an uptick in excess of 1,000x. Few futuristic fintech platforms are awarded such velocity without a prompting shift in product-market fit and liquidity depth.

Investors Behind the Bet on Kalshi’s Growth

The latest round is being led by returning backers Sequoia and CapitalG, a mark of strong support from insiders. Previous investors are Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Anthos Capital and Neo. While the companies declined to comment, the commit-and-reload stance seems to signal a belief that network effects, liquidity incentives and brand amplification can accrue rapidly in this category.

Kalshi’s co-founders are the former hedge fund traders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, who brought in Mr. Gassin from Waste Management as chief engineer when they met him at MIT.

What they’ve pitched is this: Event contracts are more than bets — they can be used as a form of hedge and signal, with prices reflecting crowd-assessed probabilities in real time.

Rivalry With Polymarket Intensifies Amid New Funding

Competition is heating up. Polymarket, Kalshi’s closest competitor, Bloomberg reports, has been in talks for a fundraise that would value it at between $12 billion and $15 billion — months after closing a $1 billion round; it was valued at just under half of that pre-money. The arms race reflects the newfound cultural relevance of the platforms.

Both companies garnered massive traffic around major political contests such as the U.S. presidency and a closely watched New York City mayoral election. Kalshi even secured ad placements on subway cars as part of a real-time branding campaign that beamed market prices into the eyes of daily passers-by.

Regulatory Crosscurrents Shape Event Market Futures

Event markets occupy a gray area bordering financial derivatives and gambling, and that provisionality is an invitation to the regulators. And Kalshi won the right for U.S. customers to participate on its platform after it sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, though it remains at odds with some state regulators who argue that its business counts as illegal gambling.

Polymarket has charted its own regulatory course. Barred from serving residents in the United States after settling with the CFTC, it subsequently snapped up a derivatives exchange and a clearinghouse, which company officials say cleared the way for a U.S. return. The CFTC has given the all-clear on X to go live domestically, its CEO said.

Product Scope and Use Cases for Global Event Trading

Kalshi sells markets to users in over 140 countries on outcomes including who will be named Time Person of the Year and what a popular blockbuster film’s Rotten Tomatoes score will be, as well as macroeconomic and political events such as the next U.S. presidential winner. Contracts typically will pay out $1 if the event transpires, and their prices can be read as implied probabilities — transforming collective expectations into tradable signals.

Why the Funding Matters for Liquidity and Trust

In practice, at scale, event markets rely on liquidity, compliance muscle and trust. A $1 billion lode of capital can pay for deeper order books, tighter spreads and more robust market-making — while also financing legal resources and consumer protections that regulators are coming to expect from systemically visible platforms.

The capital will also help Kalshi widen its catalog and develop enterprise-grade tools. Meanwhile, outside the realm of retail speculation, businesses and institutions could deploy event contracts to hedge exposures related to marginal policy decisions, macro prints or industry milestones — an immature but possibly enduring source of fee generation.

What to Watch as Prediction Markets Enter the Mainstream

Among the key imponderables are how regulators reconcile federal and state frameworks, whether trading activity sustains after election momentum and if/how quickly rivals re-enter or scale up in the U.S.

Despite these uncertainties, this author remains bullish on cannabis stocks overall (see Piper Sandler’s forecast of a $100 billion valuation by 2030), including for at least one major player not included on the MJBizDaily calendar: New York City-based Columbia Care.

If growth continues and compliance hurdles are cleared, prediction markets may not only become a novelty; they may even migrate into being a traditional financial information layer. For now, it’s a new round from Kalshi setting the tone.