For more than a decade now, Samsung has been the world’s most popular maker of smartphones, and being number one has long meant people are scared to take it on. And yet maybe our era of fear is over. Fresh estimates from Counterpoint Research suggest that Apple is set to surpass Samsung in global shipments and stay ahead for years, any imminent reversal of fortune perhaps marking the beginning of the end of Samsung’s world-dominating rule.
Counterpoint predicts that iPhone shipments will rise by around 10% in 2025, compared with an anticipated 4.6% growth for the Galaxy lineup. The company also expects Apple to take about 19.4 percent of overall smartphone shipments this year, the highest it’s enjoyed since 2011, according to Bloomberg. If achieved, that would solidify momentum that far transcends a single upgrade cycle.
Why Apple Is Gaining Momentum in Global Shipments
Analysts cite a variety of factors for the convergence: an enormous pool of pandemic-era buyers now due for rebuying, a relatively softer dollar that has made overseas watches more affordable to Americans, and an easing of U.S.-China trade tensions that lessens supply chain and pricing pressures. What’s more on top of that like an extra spritz of Cool Water is the fact Apple’s future iPhone 17 family will double down on AI with a bespoke A-series chipset and closer cloud integration across iOS—appeal which translates just as well to early adopters as it does mainstream upgraders.
Apple’s disciplined approach to portfolio and premium positioning also serves it in good stead. Industry trackers such as IDC and Canalys have long said that Apple takes a far too generous share of the industry’s revenues and profits pie despite not being No. 1 on units every year. Strong trade-in values, aggressive carrier promotions and longer software support keep iPhones cycling through households on predictable schedules, a dynamic that turns one feature leap into multiyear share gains.
Most importantly, Apple’s going after a customer base beyond the high-end faithful. Installment options, trade-in programs and expanded retail reach in low-cost regions reduce the effective entry price. Counterpoint’s read is that this has translated into sustained demand in both mature and key large emerging markets.
Where Samsung Is Getting Hurt Across Price Segments
Now what used to be Samsung’s greatest strength — a comprehensive portfolio of devices across price bands, breakthrough displays and eye-popping form factors — is no longer yielding the same kind of market insulation. Foldables are still an important showcase, but they make up only a low-single-digit percentage of global shipments and are not yet enough to shake the entire league table.
At the premium tier, S Ultra Galaxy devices are very competitive but Apple’s ecosystem pull and resale values continue to keep high-end churn leaning iPhone. Below that, competition is fierce. Players such as Xiaomi and Transsion have held strong in important segments with aggressive hardware value and localized channel strategies – a development pointed out by Canalys and IDC. Samsung’s widespread midrange, while wider than Apple’s, is on the verge of being over-extended and heavily pressured by discounting.
Samsung has been moving quickly in AI too, offering Galaxy AI features and longer update commitments, but such advantages can feel less unique as companies like Google, Qualcomm and other Android partners begin to offer their own versions of on-device AI. When every flagship phone is getting AI these days, execution—battery life, thermals, camera reliability and smoothness of operation—is what really separates the pack.
What Could Tip The Next Few Years for Apple and Samsung
Counterpoint’s assessment of Apple’s potential to dominate the top spot through 2029 casts a spotlight squarely on Samsung’s next wave. The next generation of the Galaxy S26 lineup will also need to deliver something beyond incremental gains: performance-per-watt that’s significantly better, AI features that actually solve problems for people, and midrange devices capable of differentiating themselves without hurting Samsung’s margins.
Pay attention to carrier incentives, financing and trade-in values; these levers often decide who wins upgrade seasons across the United States and in some parts of Europe. In Asia, distribution depth and localized software offerings are equivalently important. Supply chain flexibility and currency tailwinds may magnify or soften progress for either side.
The headline takeaway is obvious: Apple’s anticipated mid-teens iPhone growth compared with Samsung’s high single-digit outlook isn’t an anomaly—it is indicative of structural forces shaping product, pricing and ecosystem gravity. If Samsung is unable to reframe the conversation with its next flagships and a more focused midrange play, that TEOTWAWKI could become the new normal.
