Where the U.S. TikTok deal stands right now

A long-mulled divestment plan for TikTok’s U.S. operations is firming up, with a proposal under consideration that would see some American investors take control of the business and potentially include the app’s data and technology being kept separate from its Chinese parent, ByteDance. And while the deal, described by people with knowledge of the conversations and news reports as being announced to resolve a matter that has long confounded Internet technology companies, the two sides still face a thicket of regulatory, legal and geopolitical barriers.

What’s in the proposed deal for U.S. TikTok operations

Negotiators are working from a template in which a U.S.-led investor group would hold the majority of ownership — reports have cited something close to 80% — with ByteDance holding on to a minority stake. The board would be mostly American, and the discussions have involved the potential of a government-appointed observer to oversee compliance with national security promises, according to people who have been briefed on the talks.

Oracle is positioned as the security and infrastructure fulcrum. The company already houses U.S. user data for TikTok and would also continue to ring-fence systems, supervise access, and ensure auditability. And one critical twist is the algorithm: it would appear that U.S. owners would license the recommendation technology from ByteDance, while Oracle retrains and runs its own distinct U.S. instance. People briefed on the plan stress that ByteDance would not be able to get access to U.S. user data or influence the country’s algorithm — which is expected to continue operating independently, as it did before being part of ByteDance.

Who’s circling the asset and potential investor groups

Among the names of investors that are surfacing in deal talk are Oracle, Silver Lake and Andreessen Horowitz. High-profile supporters and possible competitors — Larry Ellison, Michael Dell among them, as well as media executives cited in televised interviews — have been whispered about as informal backers or potential co-investors. The interest is not confined to one camp: groups like “The People’s Bid” championed by Project Liberty founder Frank McCourt, along with backing from Guggenheim Securities and Kirkland & Ellis, have advocated for a more distributed ownership model that includes technologists Tim Berners-Lee and investors Alexis Ohanian and Kevin O’Leary.

Another coalition, Employer.com founder Jesse Tinsley’s American Investor Consortium, features Roblox co-founder David Baszucki and Anchorage Digital’s Nathan McCauley among its backers. Big-company names that have dabbled or shown interest at different times include Microsoft, Walmart, Amazon, AppLovin and others — not to mention individual financiers like the former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and former Activision CEO Bobby Kotick.

The regulatory gauntlet ahead for approval and oversight

Whichever way this plays out, it goes through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which has spent years weighing national security risks posed by foreign access to the data of Americans. Parallel legal fights add confusion to the timeline: TikTok has sued the United States government, claiming that an outright ban or mandated sale would violate the First Amendment rights of its platform and users. Courts could postpone enforcement or limit remedies, and extend uncertainty for months.

There’s also Beijing. China has made export controls over recommendation algorithms more stringent, and any licensing or transfer of TikTok’s core technology would probably need approval from China’s commerce authorities. And even with a license, technical segregation and code escrow and ongoing audit regimes would have to satisfy both Washington’s security requirements and Beijing’s regulatory red lines — a delicate two-front negotiation.

What this means for users and creators in the U.S.

One possibility floated in Bloomberg’s reporting is a move to a U.S.-domiciled app experience that the new entity would have rebranded. There are many open questions: Could users keep their follows and history? How soon could a retrained algorithm catch up to today’s recommendations in fidelity? Even small decreases in relevance can chip away at watch time and ad performance, and that is the lifeblood of the platform’s flywheel.

Oracle in its new capacity as host for U.S. data under the much-discussed “Project Texas” provides a starting point, but scaling an algorithm stack that’s truly independent is non-trivial. The model relies on enormous behavioral feedback loops; it takes careful data-engineering to sidestep quality gaps when retraining without cross-border signal sharing. Creators and marketers have already been contingency planning, aware that a disruption could rattle through brand deals and affiliate sales and live shopping features.

The money at stake for TikTok’s U.S. business valuation

CFRA Research’s Angelo Zino has suggested valuations for a standalone U.S. TikTok business that topped out at $60 billion, depending on growth and governance terms. Industry estimates are that U.S. advertising revenue is in the high single-digit billions per year, with additional momentum from commerce tools, search ads and creator monetization products. TikTok claims to have 170 million users in the U.S., and Pew Research Center surveys show the service has become a fixture for teens and an emerging discovery platform for adults.

For advertisers, the deal is about stability: brand safety guarantees, data transparency and assurance that the app won’t evaporate mid-campaign. For small businesses, it’s all about sustained reach and the continuation of performance tools. For creators, it’s the balance of revenue — from ads, sponsorships, tips and subscriptions — and whether a transition retains your audience without friction.

What to watch next as the TikTok divestment talks evolve

Key signposts would be the CFIUS conditions of data access and audit rights; clarification on the algorithm license under China’s export laws; the final stock-ownership cap and governance vetoes; and any court rulings that could slow or reshape enforcement. Look for more signals from the Department of Justice on timing of compliance and U.S. intelligence agencies on the new technical controls making sense.

If the framework holds, the endgame is a U.S.-controlled, independently governed TikTok that retains its audience all the while adhering to onerous security benchmarks. How it gets there will be a test of whether technical isolation and corporate governance can coexist with geopolitical compromise within one of the world’s most powerful attention engines.