The game that wasn’t but became the best-known in-game experience anyone could remember is back at the center of the internet’s attention. Fans, and the industry at large, are more sure than ever that a Half-Life 3 reveal isn’t just around the corner—it’s lurched into their peripheral vision. The evidence is pointing to a veritable treasure trove of genuine factoids: from within Valve itself via datamined references, plus the company’s own track record whenever it decides that it’s time to shift new hardware or tech.
The evidence fans cite to support Half-Life 3 rumors
There were new murmurs of momentum around a Half-Life title again after Half-Life: Alyx rekindled interest in the series. That game’s conclusion all but screamed for a follow-up, which we learned about in Geoff Keighley’s deep-dive report The Final Hours of Half-Life: Alyx: multiple internal prototypes existed (including various VR and non-VR projects), and they always wanted to go back to the series when technology and opportunity allowed. In other words, Alyx was never supposed to be a one-off side trip.
Datamining is pouring gas on the flames as they stand. Eagle-eyed community sleuths patrolling Steam’s backend through tools like SteamDB have spotted mentions of an “HLX” label in Valve depots, a tag some reporters believe has been tied to Half-Life work being done in Source 2. Codenames aren’t confirmations of anything either, but Valve games get in the database for a reason. (“Deadlock” is a multiplayer-focused project that we’ve been reporting on.) Kotaku and other outlets have also noted continued changes to internal branches, which do not seem to be related to the previously known Deadlock, indicating the existence of at least one more title in development.
Even Valve’s own storefront has pushed expectations. A soon-to-be-released view of Valve-published products has, in the past, suggested more than one game in the works. Details are intentionally fuzzy, but combined with parallel backend activity, it’s more than enough to make long-time Valve-watchers raise an eyebrow.
Valve’s platform playbook and why it matters now
There’s a reason the speculation around Half-Life 3 often sticks: Valve has, historically, shipped Half-Life to launch or supercharge something else. Half-Life 2 cemented Steam as a must-have. The Orange Box combined Portal and Team Fortress 2 to further drive the platform ecosystem. Alyx also served as a showpiece that helped to sell Valve Index headsets; research firms such as SuperData noted that Index demand skyrocketed and stock dried up in various places around Alyx’s announcement and launch window.
That playbook is relevant again. Migrating it to Source 2, Valve’s been gradually pushing its biggest games over to the engine, from Dota 2’s engine makeover onward to Counter-Strike 2. It also has a successful hardware beachhead in Steam Deck and consistent rumors of new living-room or VR hardware. If Valve needed a single-player spectacle to prove Source 2’s coming-of-age, or one to serve as an anchor for new hardware, there is no more compelling vehicle in their stable than some new version of Half-Life.
Backend breadcrumbs and codenames fueling speculation
The “HLX” mentions are a particularly cited clue, but not the only one. Dataminers have noted strange build and branch activity related to narrative tooling in Source 2, the kind of editor work you’d see on a campaign-motivated project. None of this amounts to a title, but the scale appears beyond mere maintenance. Deadlock’s existence, meanwhile, has been an open secret in the testing community—but the cycle of internal Valve updates suggests they have bandwidth for more than one team.
Valve’s careers page adds context. On past cycles, the company has hunted for level designers, character artists, and writers driven by a love of single-player experiences and worldbuilding. Job listings are hardly announcements, of course; at Valve—a company that sets up teams based on interest and prototypes—they’re often the first public indication of where the studio’s creative energy is pointed.
Why It Makes Sense to Have a Reveal Window
If there is a near-term disclosure, there are probably two ways it could go. The Game Awards presents the ultimate platform for a single-stage debut, with a record 118 million global livestreams reported across all of its channels in its most recent showing. A Half-Life trailer would be the talk of the night and every social feed to come. The reverse is equally true: Valve doesn’t require the stage of anyone else. It’s a strategy that has worked for the tech blog in its biggest platform updates and would turn the internet inside out just the same.
Tactically, a launch in 2025 would dovetail with the Source 2 engine’s wide release (Source 2 Engine) and ongoing Steam Deck energy. It would also follow years of tech investment recouped through Counter-Strike 2, leaving Valve free to spend big on narrative production values. That timing is speculative, but it’s the sensible sort of speculation—it follows Valve’s typical logic for the ordering of engine, platform, and marquee content.
Reasons for caution and why expectations should stay measured
Fans have been burned by hopes of Half-Life 3 before. The Final Hours detailed several in-development, unreleased Half-Life experiments, buttressing anecdotal wisdom about Valve culture: Projects live only for as long as their teams stay motivated and the tech is right. Backend clues can be precursors to prototypes we’ll never see, names can potentially be red herrings, and the next Half-Life game may have already come (and will come again) as something other than a numbered sequel—another VR experiment, an expansion, or a smaller piece of narrative work.
Still, the current confluence—Alyx’s dangling narrative threat, Source 2 at its most polished, unusual Steam backend rumblings, reputable reporting which sources job ads to illustrate a strong emphasis on ‘single-player experience’—adds up to more than just noise.
It’s the strongest signal in years that Valve is, at the very least, getting closer to a public conversation on what comes next for City 17.
Until Valve says something, the smart posture is cautious optimism. But for once, the Half-Life 3 truthers are counting to three in a somewhat different way from their usual shtick—they’re counting the clues, and this time there’s enough evidence.
