A strong geomagnetic disturbance from the Sun is primed to push the auroral oval southward, bringing a genuine chance of northern lights to roughly 18 U.S. states. Forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center indicate storm-level activity that typically lights up skies far beyond the Arctic, offering observers across the northern tier and parts of the Midwest and Northeast an unusual opportunity to see green, red, and sometimes purple curtains overhead.
What’s driving the display?
The source is a coronal mass ejection — a vast cloud of magnetized plasma launched from the Sun — that models show will interact strongly with Earth’s magnetic field. When a CME’s magnetic orientation opposes Earth’s, the coupling is efficient and geomagnetic activity intensifies. That chain of events is exactly what forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and other solar-physics groups monitor using satellite measurements and magnetometer networks.
Operational indices such as the Kp index quantify how far equatorward auroras are likely to appear; the current forecast calls for Kp values in the range associated with moderate-to-strong storms. Those conditions expand the auroral oval and increase the odds that people well south of the polar regions will see displays if skies are clear and light pollution is low.
Where the lights may be seen
NOAA’s latest prediction map places roughly 18 states fully or partially inside the aurora view line. The swath stretches from Alaska across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, then eastward through the Great Lakes and into parts of the Northeast. Examples of states that could experience visible aurora include Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and New York.
Being inside the forecast band doesn’t guarantee a show. Local weather, moon phase, and urban lights are decisive. In many places the aurora will appear low on the northern horizon, so an unobstructed view looking north across a dark landscape significantly improves the experience.
How to increase your odds of seeing them
Start by checking official alerts from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and local cloud forecasts from the National Weather Service. Real‑time geomagnetic monitoring and aurora‑watch services use magnetometer networks and satellite data to issue updates if activity strengthens or weakens.
Choose a dark, elevated spot away from streetlights. Let your eyes adapt to darkness for 20–30 minutes and avoid looking at phones. Because auroras can be faint and intermittent, patience matters: plan to spend an hour or more outdoors around local midnight hours when geomagnetic activity typically peaks.
Photographers have an advantage: a wide‑angle lens, tripod, manual focus set to infinity, and shutter speeds of several seconds with ISO in the mid to high hundreds can capture colors invisible to the naked eye. Many observers find that long‑exposure smartphone apps or dedicated mirrorless cameras yield the best results.
What a G3 storm can mean for the public
NOAA classifies geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). A storm at G2–G3 strength typically drives auroras to unusually low latitudes and can produce effects beyond bright skies. Forecasters warn of the possibility of high‑frequency radio degradation, minor fluctuations in power systems, and increased drag on low‑Earth‑orbit satellites. Space weather centers routinely coordinate with broadcasters, utilities, and satellite operators when activity approaches these levels.
Historical storms of comparable or greater intensity have disrupted radio communications and, in rare cases, affected ground infrastructure. For most viewers, however, a G2–G3 event is a spectacular visual phenomenon rather than a hazard — provided you follow safety guidance about driving and staying warm during nighttime viewing sessions.
Final tips and where to follow updates
Stay informed through NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices, which post forecasts and alerts. Dedicated aurora apps and community feeds can help you track real‑time activity, but always corroborate with official sources before traveling long distances. With a bit of luck and patience, observers across a broad swath of the country have a genuine shot at catching a memorable sky show.
