An influential Apple watcher has said the iPhone 17 is drawing customers, with early demand ahead of last year’s cycle. The first weekend of pre-orders for the new lineup surpassed that of iPhone 16 series, signaling that Apple’s newest flagship has found favor with upgraders and fanboys a like analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said.
Stronger pre-orders showing up in early signals
Most of Kuo’s read is based on order backlogs and shipping lead times, a proxy analysts have long used to assess momentum when Apple doesn’t disclose granular figures. Yes and no, the iPhone 17 family is proceeding along faster based on the same window for last cycle, so your prime SKUs dropping to longer handling times a week ahead of forecast.
The system isn’t perfect — production ramps and regional allocation can distort the picture — but lead-time analysis continues to capture high-demand pockets. If certain colors or storage tiers begin to stretch beyond a couple of weeks, it’s typically where Apple is chasing demand as opposed to throttling supply. That pattern is more pronounced this time, Kuo suggests.
Pro Max is the mix leader — and money maker
So far, the standout has been the iPhone 17 Pro Max, the most expensive model in the line. The Max has historically punched above its weight at launch, as enthusiasts flock to the best camera, battery life and premium materials. Investment research during recent cycles from firms like Wedbush and Counterpoint Research has found that the Max tends to account for a disproportionately large portion of early sales, lifting Apple’s average selling price.
If that pattern continues, Apple wins twice: with higher-margin hardware sold up front, and with a larger installed base electing for additional tiers of storage or premium accessories. It’s a recipe that has helped sustain the iPhone at the high end of the premium market, even as global shipments of smartphones have been unsteady.
Mixed messages for iPhone Air
The story of the new iPhone Air is more complex. Kuo says in terms of delivery time only that its demand seems weaker than the iPhone 16 Plus did during same period last year. But he also notes that Apple’s production plan for the Air is said to be far larger than that for the Plus and that helps compress lead times even when sell-throughs are tracking nicely.
It wouldn’t be the first time that a big-screen, non-Pro version of the iPhone took some time to find its legs. Launch-week backlogs were manageable, but once Apple had two months or so of sales they’d developed what we believed was a small but dedicated contingent of battery-first and value conscious buyers. CIRP has noted in the past that buyers of these models tend to keep them longer, meaning that while launch spikes can be softened, demand over quarters will be strong.
Elevate mathematics: promos, AI features, regions
There could be a few tailwinds fueling the early excitement. U.S. carriers usually offer aggressive trade-in credits around Apple debuts to reduce monthly payments on Pro-tier models and push buyers into the Max. At the same time, high end customers around the world have been much more resilient; Counterpoint Research recently reported that the $600-plus segment remains outpacing the market as a whole with Apple leading share.
There’s also the draw of new software and AI-forward capabilities — which have become an increasingly meaningful reason to upgrade. Without even a radical redesign, better cameras and battery life plus on-device AI can be enough to tip three- or four-year-holders into an upgrade—a replacement cycle that CIRP has seen repeatedly among the iPhone installed base.
What to watch next
Two check points will clarify the picture: how lead times stabilize after first-frenzy, and whether momentum holds up to availability. Supply-chain trackers such as TrendForce and Canalys will provide early production and channel reads, while retail surveys can indicate mix shifts between Pro and non-Pro models-including as promos change.
For the moment, though, the takeaway is simple. The iPhone 17 is seeing a swift uptake, with Pro Max taking the role of driver of reqs. The iPhone Air is another wait-and-see story — production planning could be masking its real course — but if history’s any guide, Apple’s wide range strategy is doing precisely what it’s meant to do: draw in the early adopters for a high-end shakeout while sowing the popular consciousness with a new, bigger screen option.
