Trump Administration Warns of Effects on Flights

The Trump administration is cautioning air travelers could experience widespread flight cancellations if the federal shutdown continues to linger, predicting a 10% reduction in scheduled operations at 40 of the largest U.S. airports just as Thanksgiving travel takes off. Transportation officials call the action a way to ensure safety as air traffic control and security staffing have become increasingly stressed, an emergency step that would ripple across the country’s burgeoning air travel network without anywhere near its normal go-go dynamic.

What Is on the Table for Potential Flight Reductions

The Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration are drafting plans to order a 10 percent staffing reduction for flight operations at some of the country’s busiest airports if absences exceed levels seen before the shutdown, officials told Reuters. The measure would be aimed at domestic schedules; international flights would be excluded, officials said. The cuts are seen by the agencies as a preventative move to ensure safety buffers are preserved, as opposed to being in response to any single incident, NBC and CNBC reported.

And though the government has emphasized that American airspace is still safe, the message behind such a decision isn’t lost: keeping critical personnel at work without pay for extended periods increases fatigue risk and limits options to cover sick calls, as well as training and certification pipelines at major facilities.

Why This Affects Thanksgiving Travel Across the U.S.

Thanksgiving is the most compressed travel period of the year for U.S. airports. Over the past several holiday periods, TSA has screened more than 30 million travelers during the week, and some single-day tallies have exceeded 2.9 million. Airlines for America had already forecast record demand around Thanksgiving, fueled by robust domestic travel and crowded schedules at hub airports.

A 10% cap at airports like Atlanta, Chicago O’Hare, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver, Los Angeles and New York’s airports would cascade through the system, denying access to connecting flights; air travel allows us to easily get between many U.S. cities in two stops or fewer, and regulating traffic at the ones with multiple connections would erase operational slack we have for weather or mechanical problems. Even if the first cuts are focused on 40 airports, the ripple effects will be felt systemwide, with carriers having to reschedule takeoffs, reduce frequencies, and decide whether long-hauls or high-load-factor routes are worth keeping over thinner service.

The Staffing and Safety Backdrop Behind the Plan

Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers are among the federal workers required to work during shutdowns without receiving pay. Reuters had previously reported that some 30,000 controllers and more than 50,000 TSA officers could be impacted — numbers that don’t leave a lot of margin for overtime or last-minute sick calls. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association has long warned that chronic staffing shortages and training classes delayed during funding lapses snowball.

There is precedent for operational stress. Staffing shortages at East Coast facilities during the last lengthy shutdown helped lead to ground stops and long delays at New York LaGuardia, with knock-on effects at Newark and Philadelphia. The FAA would normally monitor demand with Ground Delay Programs and Airspace Flow Programs; a proactive 10% schedule cut is essentially a longer, wider-reaching form of those measures designed to keep controller workload within safe levels.

How Many Flights Are Affected, and Which Airports

The 40-airport list, which officials and people in the aviation industry described to The Times, includes many of the largest U.S. hubs as well as virtually every domestic airport that connects to a handful of affected European cities. In combination, they represent a very significant share of daily departures. With scheduled commercial operations in the U.S. often climbing well above 20,000 flights daily, a single-digit operational threshold coming off high-throughput facilities such as that established at O’Hare could result in thousands of cancellations and consolidations over the holiday season.

International service would remain protected under the exemption, so the bulk of the reductions would be for short- and medium-haul domestic flights. Usually, airlines will protect long-haul and hub-to-hub flying first and cut frequency more on short-haul spokes, which can disproportionately hit small communities or early-morning or late-night departures.

What Travelers Need to Do to Prepare and Respond

• Check flight status frequently. Leverage your airline app and airport alerts, not just third-party sites. Sign up for text notifications.
• Know your rights. Under U.S. Department of Transportation regulations, if an airline cancels or significantly changes your flight, you are entitled to a refund for the remaining value of your ticket, even on nonrefundable tickets. In some cases, passengers traveling on transatlantic itineraries may be protected under EU laws, depending on the airline and point of departure.
• Look for waivers. Airlines also have a history of issuing change-fee waivers during broad disruptions, effectively allowing customers to rebook for free within set limits. If you absolutely must travel, try to book a time that’s off-peak, or look for alternative airports in the same metro area.
• Consider alternatives. There may also be rail and driving options for trips up to 400–500 miles. If you rebook yourself, hold on to all receipts in case your airline subsequently reimburses or issues vouchers.

The Industry’s Reaction and the Stakes for the Holidays

The airline industry and airport groups have called on policymakers to bring the shutdown to an end, arguing that a reduction in flight volumes during the height of the holiday season would come with substantial economic and operational consequences. Citing the need for reliable funding to retain certified controllers and keep training throughput steady in high-volume facilities, leaders with the Airports Council have stressed this.

The administration’s message is that safety comes first, even if the trade-off means fewer flights. For travelers, the pragmatic translation is straightforward: Plans can shift with little warning. While the funding impasse continues, there is less slack, tighter staffing, and narrower margins in the nation’s holiday air system — factors that raise the importance of planning ahead and being flexible.