A powerful geomagnetic storm from the Sun is set to do just the trick, propelling the auroral oval southward and giving most of some 18 U.S. states a real shot at seeing the northern lights.
Forecasts from the Space Weather Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest storm-level activity that normally beams with auruiral activity well into the mid-latitudes, giving people with enough clear skies in the northern tier and into the Midwest and New England a rare chance to see green, red and even sometimes purple curtains of light overhead.
What’s driving the display?
The source is a coronal mass ejection, a huge cloud of magnetized plasma that is ejected from the sun, that models predict will strongly influence the earth’s magnetic field. The coupling is strong and geomagnetic activity is strong when the magnetic polarity of the CME is opposite that of Earth. That series of events is precisely what forecasters at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and solar-physics groups around the world watch for with satellite readings and magnetometer networks.
Operational indices such as the Kp index provides an estimate as to how equatorward in latitude one might expect visible auroras; the current forecast is for Kp values that equate to moderate-to-strong storm levels. Those conditions expand the auroral oval and improve the chances that people far to the south of the polar regions may see displays if skies are clear and light pollution is minimal.
Where to see the lights
NOAA’s most recent prediction map has about 18 states that are partly or fully located in the aurora view line. The band goes from Alaska across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, then eastward across the Great Lakes and into parts of the Northeast. Possible states for visible aurora to reach are…Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and New York.
Just being in the forecast band doesn’t promise us a show. Local weather, moon phase and city lights are determining. The aurora will be low in the northern sky in many locations, so finding a north facing site that is free of light pollution will greatly enhance the experience.
How to improve your chances of spotting them
Begin by looking at official alerts from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and local cloud forecasts from the National Weather Service. So, real‑time geomagnetic monitoring and aurora‑watch services, which draw on information from networks of magnetometers and satellites, provide updates if activity is ramping up or dying down.
Find a dark location, ideally one that’s high up and free from streetlights. Allow your eyes to adjust to the dark for 20 to 30 minutes, and eschew cellphones. Because the auroras can be faint and intermittent, patience matters; plan to be outside for an hour or more around local midnight hours, when geomagnetic activity is likely to be at a peak.
Photographers have an edge, because with a wide‑angle lens, a tripod, manual focus set to infinity and a long exposure with ISO in the mid to high hundreds, they can gather colors that are invisible to the human eye. Many a viewer has found the optimal results with long‑exposure smartphone apps or dedicated mirrorless cameras.
What a G3 storm could mean for the public
NOAA rates geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme). A storm of G2–G3 can send auroras unusually close to the Equator, and have effects beyond fairly bright sky. Forecasters caution that it could lead to high‑frequency radio degradation, power systems on the surface may experience voltage alarms and the issue with low‑Earth‑orbit satellites has always been increased drag. Space weather centres also routinely collaborate with broadcasters, power grid managers and satellite operators when conditions are nearing these levels.
Comparable or more intense historical storms have caused disruption to radio communications, and in isolated cases, other aspects of the ground system. For many observers, however, a G2–G3 is a spectacular visual phenomenon, more than a hazard — so long as you observe proper safety advice of not driving and keeping warm if you are viewing at night.
Final tips and where to follow updates
Keep an eye on NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices, which issue forecasts and alerts. Monitoring Dedicated aurora apps and community feeds may help you track real‑time activity, but be sure to double-check against official sources if you’re planning on travelling any significant distance. With a little luck and some patience, observers across a wide swathe of the country stand a real chance of catching a memorable sky show.