Evans & Novak

Presidential Outlook: With nearly eight weeks before the election, the momentum is with Vice President Al Gore against Texas Gov. George W. Bush.

1) Bush has retooled his campaign following the loss of his big lead over the month. He is hitting issues-conservative issues-in a town-meeting format. That replaces generalities in a mass rally format.

2) We observed Bush beginning the week in Florida, and he looked good. He was hitting tax reduction and attacking Gore on the issue of big government. It was vastly superior to his fuzzy performance following the Democratic convention in Los Angeles.

3) Yet, the fact that he was in Florida in a quickly arranged day-and-a-half trip shows how much Bush is in trouble. The big state is essential to any combination of Bush winning, and was considered safely in his bag by double-digit margins just a month ago. When Bush arrived in Florida Monday, the state was in play and probably slightly in Gore's favor.

4) Nevertheless, Bush was again thrown astray by a controversy over a Republican National Committee TV ad that in one frame left "Rats" remaining from "Bureaucrats," bringing charges of subliminal advertising. We thought the charge was ridiculous and massively overplayed by the news media. But it took Bush off message temporarily-diverting attention from his carefully arranged Tuesday event with cancer patients to dramatize his health care plans.

5) Is that fair? It doesn't matter. This is big league politics, and mistakes are costly. It is the Bush campaign's responsibility to stay on message.

6) Meanwhile, Gore cruises along. The once fearsome destroyer of the campaign trail is now above saying anything mean-leaving it to his staff and campaign ads. He has peaked as a candidate.

7) It is still a close election, but Bush can let it slip away if the message is on kisses rather than substance.

Budget Endgame: As budget negotiations begin in earnest, GOP leaders are banking on debt reduction as a way to constrain President Bill Clinton's spending demands.

1) Similar to last year, in which the Social Security surplus was declared out of bounds, debt reduction is now being discussed as a way to stop new spending. With major tax relief dead for the year, House Republicans want to corral 90% of the $70 billion non-Social Security surplus for paying down debt. The remaining 10%, in the view of Republican leaders, will accommodate Clinton's spending demands, and leave room for some smaller tax cuts.

2) Republican leaders want Clinton to face a choice: Either spend more or reduce debt. The latter option is seen as popular with voters, and so Republicans believe they can force Clinton to accept some debt reduction as a tradeoff for more spending. Senate GOP leaders are considering the idea, but there is talk that the Senate will be unwilling to dampen its own desire to spend.

3) Other stumbling blocks include policy differences on ergonomics regulations, school construction, environmental riders, and international family planning issues. Appropriations committee staffers, who were meeting with White House staff as of this writing, want the administration to drop some of its policy demands in exchange for more spending.

House and Senate Primaries: A look a recent results.

Arizona: Former Goldwater Institute Executive Director Jeff Flake (R.) defeated attorney Tom Liddy (R.) (son of G. Gordon Liddy), former city council member Sal DeCiccio (R.), and cable executive Susan Bittersmith (R.) in the Ist District He will face Democrat David Mendoza (D.) in the general.

Sure GOP Retention.

Minnesota: Former state auditor Mark Dayton (D.) ousted three rivals in the hotly contested Senate primary. Dayton will take on Sen. Rod Grams (R.), one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents, in the general.

Leaning Democratic Takeover.

New Hampshire: Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D.) will face a spirited challenge from former Sen. Gordon Humphrey (R.), who bested several primary foes. Shaheen still has a big lead, but Humphrey will be competitive.

Probable Democratic Retention.

New York: Regina Seltzer (D.) has ousted Republican-turned-Democrat Mike Forbes in the lst District primary. Felix Grucci (R.), the Brookhaven supervisor, could take this seat. A loss here could seriously diminish Democratic prospects of retaking the House.

Leaning GOP Takeover

Rhode Island: Rep. Robert Weygand (D.) defeated attorney Richard Licht (D.) for the right to challenge Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R.).

Leaning GOP Retention.

This special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EVENTS. For subscription information on their EvansNovak Political Report call 800-789-5367.

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Sep 22, 2000
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