Should Warner Be Challenged From the Right in '08?

"Warner's always been a problem child," said one conservative Republican state legislator from Northern Virginia after his state's Republican U.S. senator for the past 29 years became one of only seven GOP senators to vote in favor of the Democrats' non-binding resolution opposing President Bush's deployment of an additional 21,500 troops to Iraq.

Disturbing Actions

The legislator-who, like most Virginia Republicans critical of Warner, requested anonymity-was referring to John Warner's long-standing pattern of occasional, but painful, non-conservative votes and actions. Among them: voting for government funding of abortion in some cases, for the Brady guncontrol bill, and for the renewal of the "assault-weapons" ban; putting a hate-crimes measure in the '04 Defense Authorization bill; opposing Robert Bork's nomination to the Supreme Court in 1987; and undercutting the campaigns of home-school movement leader Mike Farris for lieutenant governor in 1993 and Oliver North for the U.S. Senate in '94 after they had become the Republican nominees. (Both were defeated by Democrats.)

In 2004, Warner had infuriated conservative GOPers in Virginia with his support of state tax increases proposed by Old Dominion Democratic Gov. Mark Warner (no relation, and, in fact, John Warner's Democratic opponent in 1996).

Over all, Warner's lifetime rating in the Senate from the American Conservative Union is a respectable-appearing 81%. But the issues on which he has broken with most Virginia conservatives have been significant and even critical. (One thinks of Franklin Roosevelt's response when told that New York Times columnist Arthur Krock agreed with him 90% of the time: "But, ohhh, that 10%!")

"I hope that John Warner is toppled-just like that statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad," is how insurance man James F. McIntyre, a longtime GOP leader in Fairfax County, Virginia, reacted to the senator's vote on Iraq. "And that goes for [moderate Republican Northern Virginia Rep.] Tom Davis, too." Davis was one of 17 House Republicans to break ranks and vote for the Democrat-crafted withdrawal resolution.

"Warner's overall record merits a challenge for renomination every six years" is how one very active volunteer in Virginia Republican politics put it. "Yes, if he runs again, he should be challenged in '08. But he probably won't be." Like the conservative state legislator who voiced dismay with Warner's record, the GOP volunteer requested anonymity.

Image of Invincibility

Two weeks after his 80th birthday, John Warner appears to have developed an image of invincibility in the party in whose conclaves he is quite frequently-albeit anonymously-cursed for his votes. In fact, rarely does one hear praise for him at Republican meetings. Moreover, a unique Virginia law that permits incumbents to determine the means of their own nomination-convention or primary-works to the advantage of the senator who shows he can stray off the conservative reservation.

As he did in 1996, the last time he faced a renomination challenge, Warner will almost surely insist on a primary rather than a convention, which draws party activists who tend to be quite conservative. In a primary, any registered Virginia voter can participate since the state has no party registration-meaning voters who normally back Democrats in the fall can turn out for Warner in the primary. (In 1996, choosing the primary as the nomination avenue, Warner, heavily endorsed by the liberal media, easily defeated former Office of Management and Budget Director Jim Miller, who hit him hard from the right, by a 2-to-1 margin.)

But there is another part of the Warner saga. Morton Blackwell, Virginia's Republican national committeeman, told me that "there is a story circulating that the senator and his people are going to lead everyone to believe he will run and then not file at the last minute. This would open the way for Tom Davis to seek the Republican nomination. As a result of the circulation of that story, conservatives are looking for a prominent figure in the party-say [former Gov.] Jim Gilmore or one of the House members-to be ready to run in the event it happens."

But, I asked, "What if Warner lives up to what he has so far said publicly and runs again?" Said Blackwell, without hesitation: "John Warner can stay in the Senate for the rest of his life if he chooses."

jgizzi@eaglepub.com

Copyright Human Events Publishing, Inc. Mar 5, 2007
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