Peron's latest hurrah - election of Carlos Saul Menem as president of Argentina

BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA-One might have thought Argentina's fascination with Peronism would have worn off by now. Juan Peron's first dictatorship was ended after nine years in 1955, when he was overthrown and sent into exile. He was returned to power in 1973, only to die in office the following year, leaving behind him a deteriorating situation that gradually engulfed his widow, "Isabelita," who succeeded him.

But two weeks ago, Argentinians voted for Peronism without Peron when they elected Carlos Saul Menem president. Menem, who belongs to Peron's own Justicialist party, made his campaign a working-class "Crusade for Dignity." He preached the gospel of Peron's civic religion the length and breadth of the country, promising the underclass a "productivity revolution" and workers salariazos-monthly raises, which, when instituted by Per6n himself, caused massive inflation.

Menem garnered 49 per cent of the vote, giving him a 12-point margin over his former law-school classmate, Eduardo Angetoz, of the ruling Radical Civic Union. Menem won in large part by negative campaigning, linking his opponent with the disastrous economic policies of President Rail Alfonsin. Inflation in Argentina is currently at 900 per cent; the austral, the new currency launched in June 1985 with a value of $1.20, is today worth one-half cent. Argentina's $58-billion debt is discounted 70 per cent on the secondary market, and she has been cut off from new IMF and World Bank loans. But while Angeloz was guilty by association, Menem has more to do with what ails Argentina.

Menem's "productivity revolution" comes straight out of Peron's last fiveyear plan and employs Peron's vague concept o "social property," in which the means of production and natural resources will be divided among the state, private capital, and Peronist workers. State and parastatal industries already produce 55 per cent of the gross domestic product. The General Labor Confederation, which dominates the Labor movement, is the largest power block in the Justicialist party.

Under classical Peronism, a party card is a passport to a nation within a nation. Funded by tax money, and by party and union dues, the perquisites of Peronism are channeled to the "organized Peronist communities" (a concept Peron picked up while serving as army attache to Mussolini's Italy) through the unions and a nationwide network of party offices called "basic units." Access to these benefits, which range from cash, food baskets, child care, and health care to jobs, pensions, and low-cost vacations, is available to "card-carrying" Peronists and members of loyal worker syndicates. Traditionally, the cost of these programs has been passed through to consumers and, like the fabled salariazos, has served only to drive inflation skyward.

Under Peron and the succeeding juntas, Argentina's government evolved into an administrative octopus whose tentacles squeezed tribute from every element of national life. With the government acting as the patron saint of employment, resistance to the structural reforms called for by the multilateral lenders became a patriotic duty. This thinking has been perpetuated by the patria financiera, the ultranationalist economic interests-including bankers, industrialists, and ranchers-who closely hold much of the nation's capital; they backed the Falklands war, and remain the behind-the-scenes beneficiaries of the state-dominated economy.

Menem also benefited from endorsements by Colonel Mohamed Ali Sineldin and Lieutenant Colonel Aldo Rico, who, between them, are responsible for three mutinies that nearly toppled the Alfonsin government. Thanks to laws that prohibit soldiers from boosting their income through second (or third) jobs, unlike featherbedding Peronists and others in the country, they were able to Peronize large numbers of officers and NCOs, and they threatened a coup if Angeloz won. Perhaps this is why Menem made a habit, during the campaign, of saying, "I already feel that I am president." When nearly one million Peronists massed in city centers throughout the country after the polls had closed, Angeloz conceded although less than 50 per cent of the vote had been counted.

Menem has promisects a pluralistic government, though both the Radicals and the Peronists have previously tried to establish a one-party state when in power. Peronism would not seem to lend itself easily to power-sharing: party membership is granted only to those who believe in another party catchword, "verticalism"-the ability to follow orders passed down from the top. Perhaps Peron's most famous words are, "When I decide, I exclude." The Peronists control 17 of the 22 state governorships-it was their victories in the September 1987 elections that forced Alfonsin to halt interest payments on the debt.

It is unlikely that Menem, hobbled by his promises and the necessity of pleasing the General Labor Confederation, will deal with national problems much better than Alfonsin did, After all, Peronists joined together with the patria and a group of opportunistic young Radicals over the last few years to frustrate Alfonsin's attempts at reform. An offer by Scandinavian Airlines Systems (SAS) to buy 40 per cent of Aerolineas Argentinas, the stateowned airline, was killed in congress. The sale of 40 per cent of Entel, the government telephone monopoly, to Telefonica of Spain was also rejected. With only nine years of proven oil reserves, Alfonsin attempted to engage the help of foreign companies in the petroleum exploration effort through the Houston Plan, but Yacimientos Petroleos Fiscales (YPF), the big daddy of all Argentine state-owned companies, offered only marginal drilling sites for lease to "foreigners."