Go forth, Abraham - Michigan Republican gubernatorial candidate Spencer Abraham

DETROIT

REPUBLICAN prospects of winning back control of the Senate this November turn in no small part on how things go in Michigan, where Don Riegle, politically ruined by the Keating Five scandal, is taking a long-deserved retirement. His replacement will be either Democrat Bob Carr, the perennial congressman from the 8th District, or Spencer Abraham, erstwhile deputy chief of Dan Quayle's vice presidential staff and for nine years chairman of Michigan's Republican Party.

So closely contested were all of the major races in Michigan's primary election on August 2 that the newspapers did not announce the winners until their Thursday editions. Democrats were expected to nominate Mr. Carr, who was first elected to Congress in 1974, and eventually he did squeak past five opponents, receiving 28 per cent of the votes. On the Republican side, things were more unpredictable. Mr. Abraham's opponent, talk-radio personality Ronna Romney, polled ahead of him all summer long in public-opinion surveys, where her former father-in-law's famous name made her a special favorite of voters old enough to remember George Romney as Michigan's governor in the 1960s. But Mr. Abraham, much perferred among younger voters, combined characteristically strong organization with a flawless final week of campaigning and won with 52 per cent.

The Carr-Abraham face-off remained a statistical tie through September; recent polls have shown Mr. Abraham inching into the lead. Credit his exemplary campaign and Governor Engler's growing lead over Howard Wolpe. Had the race boiled down to money, Mr. Abraham would have had a problem, because Mr. Carr seems to have well-heeled supporters all over the country. Possibly Mr. Carr's widespread network of admirers has something to do with his chairmanship of the Transportation Subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee, the chokepoint through which lush federal subsidies to high-way, mass-transit, and airport projects must pass. Gannett News Service reported that most of Mr. Carr's contributions have been coming from out-of-state sources and in big chunks, especially from transportation-industry PACs representing companies such as Federal Express, United Airlines, and Northwest Airlines. By contrast, most of Mr. Abraham's contibutors are from Michigan, and most are individuals who have given under $200; only 3 per cent of his contributions have come from PACs.

Though Mr. Carr may have an edge in money and in the backing of the United Auto Workers, with 475,000 members in the state, Mr. Abraham probably has an organizational advantage. In this arena he is very nearly a genius, one of the finest nuts-and-bolts political technicians of his generation.

Mr. Abraham's introduction to politics was as a campaign aide for Richard Headlee, the GOP candidate beaten by Democrat James Blanchard in the 1982 gubernatorial election. Though Mr. Headlee was a conservative and a somewhat polarizing figure in Michigan politics in that period, Mr. Abraham retained a reputation as a non-ideological party man. In February 1983, at the age of 30, he was elected chairman of a state Republican Party that was demoralized, exhausted, and $450,000 in debt. Democrats controlled both houses of the state legislature, and Republicans did not hold a single statewide office.

In a special election 12 months later, Republicans assumed control of the state Senate for the first time in ten years. The proximate cause of this upheaval was the recall of two freshman Senate Democrats because of a petition campaign dominated by mad-as-hell tax protestors. But unfocused, undisciplined political rage is generally unproductive. Republicans were able to capitalize on it in this instance because they had done their homework. Particularly in special elections, effective organization at the precinct level is crucial to make sure that everybody knows what to do and when. The triumph was widely credited to Mr. Abraham. He also showed himself to be a tenacious fundraiser. In that one year he wiped out the party's debt and banked an additional $2.5 million.

In November 1984, Republicans made further gains. Not only did Michigan give President Reagan the largest re-election margin of any industrial state, 59 per cent, but Republicans were widely successful in state races for the first time in many years. They gained a majority on the state Board of Education, picking up all eight open seats; they also won two out of three state Supreme Court seats and a seat in Congress. Even more telling, Republicans were successful in dozens of contests for membership on county boards of commissioners.

In 1990, with Mr. Abraham in his fourth term as party chairman, state Senate Majority Leader John Engler beat Mr. Blanchard to become governor. Mr. Engler is no more liberal than was Mr. Headlee; rather, the political climate in Michigan had changed. In fact, an almost complete transformation of the state's politics had occurred on Mr. Abraham's watch. Ronald Reagan can take some of the credit. Much of the GOP's new strength is drawn from Reagan Democrats. But Reagan Democrats are to be found everywhere in the country, and most of them are still regularly voting for Democrats, especially for state offices. In Michigan, that is beginning to change. In November 1992, shortly after Mr. Abraham stepped down as party chairman, Republicans tied the Democrats for control of the state House, emerging from the minority for the first time since 1968.