Dark days for the dark continent

There is no precedent for the number of lives affected by the HIV epidemic, maintains Lester R. Brown, president of Earth Policy Institute, Washington, D.C., and author of Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization. To find anything similar to such a potentially devastating loss of life, it is necessary to go back to the smallpox decimation of Native American communities in the 16th century or to the bubonic plague that wiped out roughly one-quarter of Europe's population during the 14th century. HIV should be seen for what it is--an epidemic of epic proportions that, if not checked soon, could take more lives during this century. than were claimed by all the wars of the previous century.

[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Since the human immunodeficiency virus was identified in 1981, this infection has spread worldwide. By 1990, an estimated 10,000,000 people were infected with the virus. By the end of 2007, the number who had been infected climbed to more than 80,000,000. Of this total, over 40,000,000 have died; a similar number are living with the virus. Twenty-five million HIV-positive individuals today live in sub-Saharan Africa, but only 500,000 or so are being treated with anti-retroviral drugs. Seven million live in South and Southeast Asia, with more than 5,000,000 of them in India alone.

Infection rates are climbing. In the absence of effective treatment, the parts of sub-Saharan Africa with the highest rates face a staggering loss of life. Adding the heavy mortality from the epidemic to the normal mortality of older adults means that countries such as Botswana and Zimbabwe will lose half of their adult populations within a decade, Brown points out.

The HIV epidemic is not an isolated phenomenon. It is affecting every facet of life and every sector of the economy. Food production per person, already lagging in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, now is falling fast as the number of field workers shrinks. As food production drops, hunger intensifies among the dependent groups of children and the elderly. The downward spiral in family welfare typically begins when the first adult falls victim to the illness--a development that is doubly disruptive because, for each individual who is sick and unable to work, another adult must care for that person.

The massive loss of young adults to AIDS already is beginning to cut into economic activity. Rising worker health insurance costs in industry are shrinking--or even eliminating--company profit margins, forcing some firms into the red. In addition, companies are facing increased sick leave, decreased productivity, and the burden of recruiting and training replacements when employees die.

Education is affected as well, Brown stresses. The ranks of teachers are being decimated by the virus. In one recent 12-month period, for instance, Zambia lost 815 primary school teachers to AIDS, the equivalent of 45% of new teachers trained that year. With students, when one or both parents die, more children are forced to stay home simply because there is not enough money to buy books or pay school fees. Universities are feeling the effects, too. At the University of Durbin in South Africa, for example, 25% of the student body is HIV-positive.

The effects on health care are equally devastating. In many hospitals in eastern and southern Africa, a majority of the beds are occupied by AIDS victims, leaving less space for those with other illnesses. Already overworked doctors and nurses often are stretched to the breaking point. With health care systems unable to provide even basic care, the toll of traditional disease also is rising, Brown affirms.

The epidemic is leaving millions of orphans in its wake. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have 18,400,000 "AIDS orphans" by 2010--children who have lost at least one parent to the disease. There is no precedent for the millions of street children in Africa. The extended family, once capable of absorbing orphaned children, is itself being decimated by the loss of adults, leaving youngsters, often small ones, to take care of themselves. For some girls, the only option is what has come to be known as "survival sex." Michael Grunwald of The Washington Post writes from Swaziland, "In the countryside, teenage Swazi girls are selling sex--and spreading HIV--for $5 an encounter, exactly what it costs to hire oxen for a day of plowing."

The HIV epidemic in Africa is a serious development dilemma--a matter of whether a society can continue to function as needed to support its people, according to Brown. It also is a food and national security problem, as well as an educational and foreign investment crisis. Stephen Lewis, the United Nations Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa, maintains the epidemic can be curbed he infection trends reversed, but it will take help from the international community. The failure to finance the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria fully, he indicates, is "mass murder" by complacency.