Another warm winter looks to be on tap

A forecast calling for "the heart" of the winter to be unseasonably warm across much of the U.S., with only the Northwest receiving average or above average cold and snow, has been issued by Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster at Accuweather.com, State College, Pa. However, warm weather combined with below average precipitation could be problematic for the drought-stricken southern states. The recent cold spell in the East and Great Lakes area is consistent with the winter forecast which calls for colder seasonable weather at the beginning and end of the winter with warmer temperatures dominating what climatologically is supposed to be the coldest part of the season.

"There will be bouts with major winter events, which are typical even in the warmest of winters. We may see some of our wildest winter weather over the next month and then again in March or April, but energy interests should be aware that this winter will be one where much less than normal energy for heating will be used," according to Bastardi. "Last winter, as we forecast, the warmth of January was followed by the sharp change to bitter cold weather. This winter, the warmth will continue on through February.

"November into December and March and April will be closest to what we consider winter weather, with the chance of cold and snowy conditions, but once we're into the heart of winter, from mid and late December into February, we may see one of the top 10 warmest winters ever recorded for the southeastern U.S.," Bastardi continues. "The core of the warm weather will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas."

AccuWeather.com believes that the combination of what may be a top-five La Nina event combined with a cycle of warming water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are the key signals to the coming season. Bastardi forecasts that the 2007-08 winter may be as warm as those of 1998-99 and 2001-02; both were warmer than average. "More than 75% of the days this winter may have temperatures above normal in most of the nation, southeast of a line that runs from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. Only the Pacific Northwest should experience colder-than-normal temperatures.

"I am more impressed than ever with the idea of a warm winter. I have almost never seen the computer models and analogs in such complete agreement. We are living in a time of climatic hardship with lots of unseasonable warmth, similar to the weather the U.S. experienced from the 1930s to 1950s. The winter of 1949-50 may be the best analog to this winter--old and snowy in the Pacific Northwest but very warm from Texas to New England."

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